Glossary — Kickoff Wire

Betting basics

Moneyline: Pick the outright winner. Odds reflect win probability after the house margin.
Spread / Handicap: Favorite gives points/goals to the underdog. The bet wins if the favorite covers.
Total / Over-Under: Bet whether the combined score lands over or under a line set by the book.
Parlay / Accumulator: Multiple bets in one ticket. Every leg must hit or the ticket loses.
Prop / Player Prop: Bets on a single player's stat (points, rebounds, goals) instead of the game result.
Futures / Outright: Long-horizon bet on a season or tournament outcome — MVP, league winner, World Cup champion.
Live / In-Play: Bets placed during the game, with the line shifting in real time.

Implied Probability: Probability baked into a price. For decimal odds: 1 / odds. The market's read on the outcome.
Edge / Value: Difference between your estimated probability and the market implied — positive = value bet.
Closing Line Value (CLV): Did you beat the closing odds? Long-term CLV is the cleanest proof of skill.
Sharp / Square: Sharp = professional money the books respect; square = recreational money the books bait.
Steam / Move: Synchronized, sharp-driven line move across multiple books in a short window.
Vig / Juice / Margin: The bookmaker's built-in cut. Two-sided 1.95/1.95 ≈ 2.6% vig.
Polymarket: USD-stablecoin prediction market. Yes/No contracts on sports, politics, events.
Kalshi: CFTC-regulated US prediction exchange. Sports event contracts in dollars.
Best of Book: Highest available price across the tracked sportsbooks at a moment in time.

xG (Expected Goals): Quality-weighted scoring chance metric for football. Higher xG = better chances.
Elo Rating: Self-updating strength rating. Winning over a higher-rated team gains more points.
Power Rating: Composite team-strength number used to set neutral-court spreads and totals.
Pace: Possessions per game (basketball). Higher pace = more scoring volume.
PER: Per-minute production rating for basketball players.
WHIP: Walks + hits per inning pitched (baseball). Lower = better starter.

KW Edge: Kickoff Wire's model number for any matchup. Compared to the market every minute.
Wire-pin / Market Tag: Tag on every wire story linking it to a live prediction-market contract.
The Kickoff: Daily 6am ET digest of the day's biggest edges, movers, and watch-list.
Movers Wall: Live dashboard of the biggest H2H probability shifts in the last 24 hours.