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FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 · USA · CANADA · MEXICO

The Wire is on World Cup duty.

Every champion contract, every opening-week fixture, every market mover — pinned to a live Polymarket and Kalshi quote. The wire updates with the book.

KICKOFF IN --DAYS : --HRS : --MIN : --SEC
MEX vs RSA Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Champion contracts — Polymarket close

Top 8 by current market price. Edge column is our pre-tournament model vs the closing market in percentage points.

01 Argentina +3.8pp
MODEL 13.1%
MARKET 9.4%
02 France -3.9pp
MODEL 12.2%
MARKET 16.1%
03 Brazil +3.3pp
MODEL 11.8%
MARKET 8.5%
04 Spain -6.2pp
MODEL 10.8%
MARKET 17.0%
05 England -1.4pp
MODEL 9.4%
MARKET 10.9%
06 Portugal -3.7pp
MODEL 7.2%
MARKET 10.9%
07 Germany +0.9pp
MODEL 6.1%
MARKET 5.3%
08 Netherlands +0.4pp
MODEL 4.5%
MARKET 4.1%
Market movers · last 1 hour LIVE
Contract
Venue
Mid
1H Δ
ARG Champion
Polymarket
11.8¢
+1.3pp
FRA Champion
Polymarket
13.5¢
-0.8pp
BRA Champion
Polymarket
10.4¢
+1.1pp
MBP Golden Boot
Kalshi
18.7¢
+2.2pp
ESP Group G Win
Polymarket
52.1¢
-3.4pp
MEX MD1 Win
Polymarket
39.4¢
+1.8pp

Opening week — pin to a fixture

First six matches, MD1 + early MD2. Click a card to see model vs market H/D/A split.

Group stage · MD1 · Jun 11, 07:00 PM UTC · Estadio Azteca
EDGE +20.1pp
MEX
vs
RSA
MODEL 46.8% 21.9% 31.3% MARKET 66.9% 21.8% 11.2%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 12, 02:00 AM UTC · Estadio Akron
EDGE +7.8pp
KOR
vs
CZE
MODEL 34.6% 24.2% 41.2% MARKET 36.2% 30.5% 33.4%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 12, 07:00 PM UTC · BMO Field
EDGE +18.7pp
CAN
vs
BIH
MODEL 35.4% 24.8% 39.8% MARKET 52.5% 26.4% 21.1%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 13, 01:00 AM UTC · SoFi Stadium
EDGE +10.6pp
USA
vs
PAR
MODEL 41.2% 24.2% 34.6% MARKET 47.9% 28.1% 24%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 13, 07:00 PM UTC · Levi's Stadium
EDGE +16.3pp
QAT
vs
SUI
MODEL 22.4% 16.3% 61.3% MARKET 7% 15.3% 77.6%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 13, 10:00 PM UTC · MetLife Stadium
EDGE +5.4pp
BRA
vs
MAR
MODEL 60.6% 16.6% 22.8% MARKET 57.6% 25% 17.4%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 14, 01:00 AM UTC · Gillette Stadium
EDGE +6.8pp
HAI
vs
SCO
MODEL 22% 16.1% 61.9% MARKET 15.2% 22% 62.8%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 14, 04:00 AM UTC · BC Place
EDGE +8.3pp
AUS
vs
TUR
MODEL 27.9% 19.6% 52.5% MARKET 19.6% 26% 54.5%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 14, 05:00 PM UTC · NRG Stadium
EDGE +13.9pp
GER
vs
CUW
MODEL 78.2% 12% 9.8% MARKET 92.1% 5.8% 2.1%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 14, 08:00 PM UTC · AT&T Stadium
EDGE +8.0pp
NED
vs
JPN
MODEL 55.3% 18.6% 26.2% MARKET 47.3% 26.7% 26%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 14, 11:00 PM UTC · Lincoln Financial Field
EDGE +5.6pp
CIV
vs
ECU
MODEL 32.1% 22.4% 45.4% MARKET 27.1% 33.2% 39.8%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 15, 02:00 AM UTC · Estadio BBVA
EDGE +8.8pp
SWE
vs
TUN
MODEL 46.8% 21.9% 31.3% MARKET 49.4% 28.1% 22.5%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 15, 04:00 PM UTC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
EDGE +7.7pp
ESP
vs
CPV
MODEL 79.3% 12% 8.7% MARKET 87% 9.2% 3.8%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 15, 07:00 PM UTC · Lumen Field
EDGE +6.6pp
BEL
vs
EGY
MODEL 57.3% 17.8% 24.9% MARKET 56.9% 24.9% 18.3%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 15, 10:00 PM UTC · Hard Rock Stadium
EDGE +4.4pp
KSA
vs
URU
MODEL 17% 13.4% 69.6% MARKET 12.6% 21.6% 65.8%
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 16, 01:00 AM UTC · SoFi Stadium
IRN
vs
NZL
MODEL 60.6% 16.6% 22.8% MARKET market data pending
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 16, 07:00 PM UTC · MetLife Stadium
FRA
vs
SEN
MODEL 58% 17.5% 24.5% MARKET market data pending
Match intelligence →
Group stage · MD1 · Jun 16, 10:00 PM UTC · Gillette Stadium
IRQ
vs
NOR
MODEL 22% 16.1% 61.9% MARKET market data pending
Match intelligence →

Group stage — 48 teams

Seed positions shown. Replaced via official FIFA draw on ingest.

GROUP A
  1. 1 MEX
  2. 2 CAN
  3. 3 JPN
  4. 4 ECU
GROUP B
  1. 1 USA
  2. 2 KOR
  3. 3 UKR
  4. 4 CRC
GROUP C
  1. 1 CAN
  2. 2 SUI
  3. 3 SEN
  4. 4 JOR
GROUP D
  1. 1 ARG
  2. 2 CIV
  3. 3 NOR
  4. 4 PAN
GROUP E
  1. 1 FRA
  2. 2 AUS
  3. 3 EGY
  4. 4 UZB
GROUP F
  1. 1 BRA
  2. 2 CRO
  3. 3 TUN
  4. 4 NZL
GROUP G
  1. 1 ESP
  2. 2 SCO
  3. 3 MAR
  4. 4 IRN
GROUP H
  1. 1 ENG
  2. 2 COL
  3. 3 DEN
  4. 4 RSA
GROUP I
  1. 1 PORT
  2. 2 BEL
  3. 3 ALG
  4. 4 UAE
GROUP J
  1. 1 GER
  2. 2 URU
  3. 3 NGA
  4. 4 CRI
GROUP K
  1. 1 NED
  2. 2 TUR
  3. 3 CAM
  4. 4 KSA
GROUP L
  1. 1 ITA
  2. 2 POL
  3. 3 GHA
  4. 4 NCL

Prices are model and market snapshots. Not investment advice. Sources: Polymarket Gamma · Kalshi · open Dixon-Coles model.

Get the Wire — daily World Cup pulse through July 19